中國石化新聞網(wǎng)訊 據(jù)美國鉆井網(wǎng)站2023年8月29日報道，惠譽解決方案公司旗下的研究機構(gòu)BMI在最近發(fā)給美國鉆井網(wǎng)站的一份新報告中公布了到2027年的最新全球平均航空燃油價格預(yù)測。

新報告預(yù)計，今年全球平均航空燃油價格為每桶110美元，2024年為每桶105.3美元，2025年為每桶106.3美元，2026年和2027年均為每桶104.3美元。新報告強調(diào)，去年全球航空燃油平均價格為每桶141.3美元。

BMI分析師們在新報告中表示：“我們保持對航空燃油價格的穩(wěn)定預(yù)測，因為我們預(yù)計，隨著北半球夏季旅游季節(jié)的提振作用減弱，航空燃油價格將整體下跌，價差將在今年剩余時間內(nèi)收窄，與我們之前的預(yù)測一致。”

BMI分析師們補充說：“與我們之前的觀點一致，航空燃油與布倫特原油的價差已隨著夏季航空旅行的峰值反彈，但隨著需求減弱，這些漲幅可能會在未來幾個月回落?！?/p>

“價格預(yù)測顯示，全球航空燃油價格將在未來18個月里呈下降趨勢，因為強勁的利潤率繼續(xù)下降，布倫特原油價格的明顯上漲未能實現(xiàn)。我們預(yù)測2024年航空燃料的全球平均價格為每桶105.3美元，比我們預(yù)測的今年每桶110.0美元下降4.2%?！?/p>

BMI分析師們在報告中指出，他們預(yù)測的風險平衡“仍傾向于下行，因為我們預(yù)計未來幾個月價格將進一步回落，煉油利潤率將進一步下降”。

BMI分析師們在報告中警告稱：“我們對航空燃油價格的中性展望面臨的最直接風險，是目前全球柴油消費的疲軟?！?/p>

“如果煉油商將更多的中間餾分油產(chǎn)量從柴油轉(zhuǎn)向利潤率更高的航空燃料，我們可能會看到航空燃料的利潤率下降。新的產(chǎn)能增長可能會壓倒市場，在未來幾個季度進一步降低煉油利潤率和航空燃油價格，這將超出我們的預(yù)期。”

“航空旅行需求的疲軟也對我們的價格觀點構(gòu)成了另一個風險，因為持續(xù)走高的利率和高通脹可能會導(dǎo)致消費者削減可自由支配的支出。雖然我們預(yù)計增長不會大幅下降，但低于預(yù)期的增長可能會進一步侵蝕超出我們目前預(yù)測的利潤率?！?/p>

在今年5月發(fā)給美國鉆井網(wǎng)站的另一份報告中，BMI分析師預(yù)測，今年全球航空燃油平均價格將為每桶109.7美元，2024年為每桶105美元，2025年為每桶106美元，2026年和2027年均為每桶104美元。

BMI分析師們在報告中表示：“我們預(yù)計，今年剩余時間的航空燃油價格將從目前的每桶100美元的現(xiàn)貨價格上漲至每桶110美元的年平均水平，但這仍比我們之前預(yù)測的每桶140美元低了22%。”

BMI分析師們在這份報告中還警告稱，“鑒于我們預(yù)計，隨著煉油廠減產(chǎn)，目前的價格趨勢將在未來幾個月逆轉(zhuǎn)”，他們的預(yù)測面臨的風險平衡傾向于下行。

在8月早些時候發(fā)布的最新短期能源展望(STEO)報告中，美國能源信息署(EIA)預(yù)計，今年布倫特原油現(xiàn)貨價格平均為每桶82.62美元，2024年為每桶86.48美元。

在撰寫本文時，布倫特原油的價格為每桶84.78美元。從6月27日收于每桶72.26美元，到8月9日收于每桶87.55美元，原油價格一直呈上升趨勢。自那以來，油價曾數(shù)次跌至每桶84美元以下。

李峻 譯自 油價網(wǎng)

原文如下：

BMI Reveals Latest Jet Fuel Price Forecast

BMI, a Fitch Solutions company, has revealed its latest global average jet fuel price forecasts out to 2027 in a new report, which was sent to Rigzone recently.

The report sees the global average jet fuel price coming in at $110 per barrel in 2023, $105.3 per barrel in 2024, $106.3 per barrel in 2025, and $104.3 per barrel in both 2026 and 2027. The 2022 global average jet fuel price was $141.3 per barrel, the report highlighted.

“We are holding our jet fuel price forecasts steady, as we expect spreads to narrow across the remainder of 2023 in line with our previous forecast, as the boost from the northern hemisphere summer travel season wanes, pulling jet fuel prices overall lower,” BMI analysts stated in the report.

“In line with our previous view, jet fuel spreads to Brent have rebounded in line with the peak in summer air travel, however these gains are likely to pare back in the coming months as demand wanes,” they added.

“Our price forecasts call for global jet fuel prices to trend lower over the coming 18 months as strong margins continue to retreat and appreciable gains in Brent prices fail to materialize. Our 2024 jet fuel global average price forecast is $105.3 per barrel, a 4.2 percent decline from our 2023 estimate of $110.0 per barrel,” the analysts went on to state.

In the report, the BMI analysts noted that the balance of risks to their forecast “remains tilted to the downside given that we expect prices to ease further and margins to track lower in the coming months”.

“The most immediate risk to our neutral outlook for jet fuel prices is the current weakness seen in diesel consumption globally,” the analysts warned in the report.

“Should refiners focus more of the middle distillate output away from diesel and into higher margin jet fuel we could see margins fall for jet fuel impacting our price forecast to the downside. New capacity gains could overwhelm markets, further reducing refining margins and jet fuel prices in the quarters ahead beyond our forecast,” they added.

“Weaker demand for air travel also pose another risk to our view for prices as persistently higher interest rates and elevated inflation could see consumers pare back on discretionary expenditures. While we don’t expect a sharp fall in growth, weaker than expected growth could further erode margins beyond our current forecast,” the analysts continued.

In a separate report sent to Rigzone back in May, BMI analysts projected that the global average jet fuel price would be $109.7 per barrel in 2023, $105 per barrel in 2024, $106 per barrel in 2025, and $104 per barrel in both 2026 and 2027.

“We forecast jet fuel prices to rise from current spot levels of $100 per barrel to a global annual average of $110 per barrel for 2023, but this still marks a substantial revision of 22 percent lower than our previous forecast for $140 per barrel,” the analysts stated in that report.

BMI analysts also warned in this report that the balance of risk to their forecast was tilted to the downside “given that we expect the current price trends to reverse in the coming months as refineries reduce output”.

The analysts also stated in that report that “the most immediate risk to our bullish outlook for jet fuel prices is the current weakness seen in diesel consumption globally”.

In its latest short term energy outlook (STEO), which was released earlier this month, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) projected that the Brent spot price would average $82.62 per barrel this year and $86.48 per barrel in 2024.

At the time of writing, the price of Brent crude oil is trading at $84.78 per barrel. The commodity had been on an upward trajectory from June 27, when it closed at $72.26 per barrel, to August 9, when it closed at $87.55 per barrel. Since then, prices have dipped under $84 per barrel on several occasions.