石油行業(yè)生產(chǎn)投資支出仍不足以滿足供應(yīng)需求

2023年新生產(chǎn)投資總額為4900億美元

盡管需求可能見頂，但分析師擔(dān)心缺乏備用產(chǎn)能緩沖

中國石化新聞網(wǎng)訊 據(jù)油價(jià)網(wǎng)8月26日?qǐng)?bào)道，多年來一直有人警告稱，石油行業(yè)在新勘探領(lǐng)域的投資不足，但現(xiàn)在該行業(yè)已開始加大投資。然而，這仍不足以確保足夠的供應(yīng)來應(yīng)對(duì)需求。

至少這是伍德麥肯茲（Wood Mac）分析師的看法，他們最近報(bào)告稱，油氣行業(yè)目前正處于上升周期的第三年，今年的新生產(chǎn)投資為4900億美元。這將大大高于2020年的低點(diǎn)3700億美元。

伍德麥肯茲的分析師在接受采訪時(shí)指出，盡管單靠自己的支出不足以確保供應(yīng)，但成本削減將彌補(bǔ)這一差額。他們注意到美國頁巖油和其他非歐佩克產(chǎn)油國的崛起，并預(yù)測未來幾年非歐佩克產(chǎn)油國將保持穩(wěn)定的市場份額。

事實(shí)上，這與美國石油行業(yè)高管在最新財(cái)報(bào)季的報(bào)告不謀而合?；旧希麄兯f的是油井產(chǎn)出的石油比預(yù)期的要多，從而提高了總產(chǎn)量。油井產(chǎn)量增加的原因在于技術(shù)的進(jìn)步。

本月早些時(shí)候，先鋒自然資源公司的報(bào)告稱，自今年年初以來，油井生產(chǎn)率一直明顯高于2022年的平均水平。然而，與此同時(shí)，彭博社最近援引Enverus的研究表明，頁巖井的開采速度比之前假設(shè)的要快，隨著頁巖田的成熟，幾乎沒有未開發(fā)的儲(chǔ)層。

除了美國的石油，還有加拿大、墨西哥、巴西和圭亞那等較小的生產(chǎn)國。這些都對(duì)全球供應(yīng)作出了重大貢獻(xiàn)，但歐佩克仍占油池中最大份額，因?yàn)槠涔餐墓?yīng)控制政策。

更重要的是，“隨著BRICS集團(tuán)的擴(kuò)大，我們得到了另一個(gè)由全球最大生產(chǎn)國組成的集團(tuán)，部分與歐佩克重疊，但也包括巴西和阿根廷”。

拋開集團(tuán)不談，盡管有轉(zhuǎn)型的推動(dòng)，但全球?qū)π掠蜌夤?yīng)的投資確實(shí)在增加。高盛(Goldman Sachs)上月報(bào)告稱，目前全球有70個(gè)大型油氣項(xiàng)目正在開發(fā)中。這比2020年增長了25%，盡管2020年很難被視為除IT行業(yè)以外任何行業(yè)投資決策的正常年份。

據(jù)這家投資銀行稱，長達(dá)7年的投資不足會(huì)導(dǎo)致未來項(xiàng)目的資源壽命以及已投產(chǎn)油田的壽命急劇下降。隨著投資的反彈，這種情況可能會(huì)改變。另一方面，Wood Mac警告稱，需求將見頂，并將推動(dòng)油氣行業(yè)發(fā)生根本性變化。

據(jù)上游分析師Fraser McKay和Ian Thom稱，本輪周期不會(huì)像之前的周期那樣以泡沫破裂告終。原因是：向非烴能源過渡所造成的石油需求峰值的前景。他們認(rèn)為，這一前景將使油氣生產(chǎn)商保持警覺，并在較長期內(nèi)嚴(yán)格遵守其財(cái)務(wù)紀(jì)律。

然而，盡管需求可能見頂，但就連Wood Mac的分析師也擔(dān)心缺乏備用產(chǎn)能緩沖，即在適應(yīng)轉(zhuǎn)型世界的同時(shí)，注重支出和效率。

McKay和Thom表示，“我們認(rèn)為企業(yè)追求的是利潤率，而不是市場份額；上游供應(yīng)鏈產(chǎn)能將緩慢增長，而不是飛躍增長，這是上升周期中的傳統(tǒng)反應(yīng)。這種限制可能會(huì)導(dǎo)致供應(yīng)鏈比該行業(yè)適應(yīng)的更緊張”。

雖然很多預(yù)測者都在談?wù)撋踔凉_呼吁石油需求見頂，但就目前而言，石油需求觸頂仍近在眼前，而石油的實(shí)際需求卻屢創(chuàng)新高。就連能源轉(zhuǎn)型的倡導(dǎo)者也是石油需求見頂預(yù)測者的國際能源署(IEA)也表示，短期內(nèi)需求將會(huì)增長，今年將達(dá)到歷史最高水平的1.02億桶/日。

這使得全球供需平衡可能比Wood Mac的分析所預(yù)測的更加不穩(wěn)定。雖然技術(shù)進(jìn)步確實(shí)在保持高產(chǎn)量和降低成本方面發(fā)揮了重要作用，但美國頁巖油開采商已經(jīng)擺脫了之前“不惜一切代價(jià)增長”的設(shè)定。

與此同時(shí)，歐佩克對(duì)個(gè)別成員國——沙特阿拉伯——的產(chǎn)量進(jìn)行了限制，只要他們決定，就可以削減額外產(chǎn)量，以推高油價(jià)。

盡管有轉(zhuǎn)型的推動(dòng)，石油和天然氣行業(yè)仍在加大對(duì)新產(chǎn)量的投入。這意味著預(yù)期石油需求峰值是一個(gè)相對(duì)遙遠(yuǎn)的前景。如果在成本大幅上漲和原材料短缺的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)下，轉(zhuǎn)型開始顯示出乏力的跡象，那么需求峰值甚至可能變得更加遙遠(yuǎn)。

郝芬 譯自 油價(jià)網(wǎng)

原文如下:

Oil Industry Not Spending Enough To Balance Supply & Demand

*Wood Mackenzie: the oil industry still isn't spending enough for supply to meet demand.

*WoodMac: investments in new production total $490 billion in 2023.

*Despite the prospect of peak demand,Wood Mac analysts are worried about the lack of a spare production capacity cushion.

After years of warnings of failure to invest in enough new exploration, the industry has begun spending more. Yet, it would still be less than is necessary to secure enough supply to respond to demand.

That’s the take of Wood Mackenzie analysts, at least, who recently reported that the oil and gas industry is currently in the third year of an upcycle, with this year’s investments in new production at $490 billion. This would be significantly higher than the low reached in 2020, which stood at $370 billion.

Even though spending on its own is not enough to secure supply, the Wood Mac analysts noted in an interview for the firm that cost reductions will make up for the difference. They note the rise of U.S. shale and other non-OPEC sources, and forecast non-OPEC producers to maintain a constant market share in the coming years.

Indeed, this chimes in with what U.S. oil industry executives reported during the latest financial reporting season. What the said, basically, was that wells were yielding more oil than expected, boosting total production. The reason wells were yielding more: technological improvements.

Argus reported earlier this month, citing Pioneer Natural Resources, that well productivity since the start of the year has been trending significantly higher than the average for 2022. At the same time, however, Bloomberg recently cited research from Enverus suggesting that shale wells were draining faster than previously assumed, with few untapped reservoirs left as the shale patch gets mature.

Besides U.S. oil, there is also Canada, Mexico, Brazil, and smaller producers such as Guyana. These have contributed significantly to global supply, but OPEC remains the biggest fish in the oil pond because of its common supply control policies.

What’s more, with the expansion of the BRICS bloc, we get another grouping of some of the largest producers in the world, partly overlapping with OPEC but also including Brazil and Argentina.

Groupings aside, global investments in new oil and gas supplied are well and truly on a rise despite the transition push. Goldman Sachs reported last month that there were currently 70 large-scale oil and gas projects under development globally right now. That was up by a substantial 25% from 2020, although 2020 could hardly be seen as a normal year for investment decision-making in any industry except perhaps IT.

Per the investment bank, the seven-year-long underinvestment period led to a sharp decline in the resource life of future projects as well as the life of already producing fields. With a rebound in investment, this may yet change. Wood Mac, on the other hand, warns of peak demand and a fundamental change in the oil and gas industry driven by the prospect of that.

According to upstream analysts Fraser McKay and Ian Thom, the current cycle will not end with a bust as all previous cycles in the industry did. The reason: the prospect of peak oil demand caused by the transition to non-hydrocarbon energy sources. This prospect, they argued, would keep oil and gas producers on their toes and maintain their financial discipline over the longer term.

Still, despite the prospect of peak demand, even Wood Mac analysts are worried about the lack of a spare production capacity cushion, which could be viewed as a side effect of this newly found discipline with spending and focus on efficiency while adjusting to a world in transition.

“We expect companies to go for margin rather than market share; and upstream supply chain capacity to creep rather than leap, which has been the traditional response in an upcycle,” McKay and Thom said, adding “That restraint could lead to a tighter supply chain than the industry has been used to.”

While peak demand for oil is something that a lot of forecasters talk about and even call for openly, for now it remains on the horizon while actual demand for oil breaks record after record. Even the International Energy Agency, a vocal transition advocate and peak oil demand forecaster said that over the short-term demand is going to grow, hitting a record of over 102 million barrels daily this year.

This makes the global balance between supply and demand perhaps a bit more precarious than the Wood Mac analysis suggests. While it’s true that technological gains have played an important role in keeping production high while reducing costs, U.S. shale drillers have steered clear of their previous setting of “growth at all costs”.

Meanwhile, OPEC is keeping a lid on output with the novel option for individual members—Saudi Arabia—to cut additional volumes whenever they decide to, in order to push prices higher. 

The oil and gas industry is spending more on new production despite the transition push. This means expectations are that peak oil demand is a relatively distant prospect. It might even become more distant if the transition begins to show signs of exhaustion amid substantial cost inflation and the risks of raw material shortages.