中國石化新聞網(wǎng)訊 據(jù)彭博社2023年8月24日?qǐng)?bào)道，美國花旗集團(tuán)(Citigroup Inc.)8月24日表示，由于石油輸出國組織(歐佩克/OPEC)一些困境最嚴(yán)重的成員國出人意料地實(shí)現(xiàn)了原油供應(yīng)增長，歐佩克核心成員國可能需要考慮進(jìn)一步減產(chǎn)。
花旗集團(tuán)估計(jì)，“脆弱5國”今年的原油日產(chǎn)量將增加大約90萬桶，2024年新增的原油日產(chǎn)量至少與此持平。過去幾年，這些國家一直在努力應(yīng)對(duì)產(chǎn)量損失和中斷?；ㄆ旒瘓F(tuán)說，新增原油產(chǎn)量足以滿足未來全球石油需求的增加。
花旗集團(tuán)大宗商品研究主管埃德·莫爾斯在接受媒體記者采訪時(shí)表示：“突然之間，這‘脆弱5國’成為了經(jīng)濟(jì)增長的來源，并將在未來4年內(nèi)成為經(jīng)濟(jì)增長的來源，甚至可能更長時(shí)間?！薄拔覀兺蝗灰庾R(shí)到，歐佩克+核心國家需要解決這個(gè)問題。”
莫爾斯說，這5個(gè)國家都顯示出原油供應(yīng)復(fù)蘇的積極跡象，而全球石油需求的增長將受到經(jīng)濟(jì)擴(kuò)張放緩的制約。
因此，歐佩克實(shí)際領(lǐng)導(dǎo)者沙特阿拉伯及其波斯灣盟國可能面臨進(jìn)一步減產(chǎn)的壓力，這些國家今年已經(jīng)削減了產(chǎn)量以支撐原油價(jià)格。沙特阿拉伯已經(jīng)將其石油日供應(yīng)量限制在近900萬桶的兩年低點(diǎn)。
“這將是一個(gè)大問題，”莫爾斯說，“我認(rèn)為他們將不得不削減產(chǎn)量，我不知道他們這么做有多容易?！?/p>
李峻 譯自 油價(jià)網(wǎng)
原文如下：
Citi Says OPEC May Need to Cut Again
OPEC’s core members may need to consider further production cuts as some of the group’s most troubled nations achieve unexpected supply growth, according to Citigroup Inc.
The “fragile five” which have struggled with output losses and disruptions for the past few years — will add roughly 900,000 barrels a day of production this year and at least the same in 2024, the bank estimates. That’s enough to satisfy coming growth in oil demand, it said.
“All of a sudden they are sources of growth, and they will be sources of growth for five, four years — or maybe even longer,” Ed Morse, Citigroup’s head of commodities research, said in an interview. “It strikes us that the core OPEC+ countries have a problem on their hands.”
The five nations are all showing positive signs of supply recovery, while growth in oil demand will be constrained by fading expansion , Morse said.
As a result, OPEC leader Saudi Arabia and its Persian Gulf allies — which have slashed production this year to shore up crude prices — may face pressure to cut output further, Morse said. The kingdom has already curbed supplies to a two-year low near 9 million barrels a day.
“It’ll be a big problem,” Morse said. “I think they’ll have to cut, and I don’t know how easy it is for them to do that.”
