在油價(jià)連續(xù)七周上漲之后，油價(jià)本周連續(xù)三天下跌
路透社市場分析師約翰·肯普表示：自6月以來，經(jīng)濟(jì)困境和疲弱的歐洲經(jīng)濟(jì)很可能只導(dǎo)致了石油市場的適度緊縮
隨著供應(yīng)收緊，目前石油市場的關(guān)鍵問題是，能否實(shí)現(xiàn)真正的經(jīng)濟(jì)反彈，以提振市場人氣，滿足需求預(yù)期
中國石化新聞網(wǎng)訊 據(jù)油價(jià)網(wǎng)2023年8月20日報(bào)道，國際能源署(IEA)在其最新月度報(bào)告中稱，盡管對經(jīng)濟(jì)的擔(dān)憂揮之不去，但全球石油需求在6月份仍創(chuàng)下歷史新高，并可能在8月份再創(chuàng)歷史新高。
分析師和預(yù)測機(jī)構(gòu)表示，歐佩克+聯(lián)盟和沙特阿拉伯的減產(chǎn)，加上預(yù)期的需求持續(xù)強(qiáng)勁，將導(dǎo)致今年剩余時(shí)間的庫存減少，從而支撐油價(jià)。
路透社市場分析師約翰·肯普認(rèn)為，自6月以來，經(jīng)濟(jì)困境和疲弱的歐洲經(jīng)濟(jì)很可能只會導(dǎo)致石油市場出現(xiàn)溫和收緊。
然而，全球石油需求和市場緊張程度可能被低估了。
IEA在其備受關(guān)注的8月石油市場報(bào)告(OMR)中稱，6月全球石油日需求觸及1.03億桶，8月可能再創(chuàng)新高。IEA指出，今年全球石油日需求將增加220萬桶。
歐洲的燃料需求在夏季也很強(qiáng)勁。費(fèi)氏全球能源咨詢公司（FGE）估計(jì)，6月份歐洲汽油需求同比增加3%，7月份同比增加5%，達(dá)到2011年以來的最高水平。
荷蘭國際集團(tuán)(ING)認(rèn)為，美國的石油需求將基本持平。ING大宗商品策略主管沃倫·帕特森周四在一份報(bào)告中寫道：“但這可能過于保守，因?yàn)榻衲甏蟛糠謺r(shí)間汽油隱含需求都高于去年水平?！?/p>
帕特森指出，今年到目前為止，美國的汽油隱含需求日均888萬桶，同比增加1.4%。
分析師說，過去幾周汽油需求有所回落，這可能是由于汽油價(jià)格上漲。
“建設(shè)性的基本面應(yīng)該意味著未來幾個(gè)月將更加強(qiáng)勁”，ING的帕特森如是表示。
渣打銀行分析師認(rèn)為，今年下半年大多數(shù)時(shí)間的大幅收緊將開始波及期貨市場。渣打銀行表示，第四季度油價(jià)可能觸及每桶100美元的季度內(nèi)高點(diǎn)。
拉皮丹能源公司總裁鮑勃·麥克納利本周早些時(shí)候表示，石油市場正處于看漲走勢，并將進(jìn)入每桶90美元的區(qū)間。
李峻 譯自 油價(jià)網(wǎng)
原文如下：
Tighter Oil Market Supports Prices
Following seven consecutive weeks of gains, oil prices dipped this week on three consecutive days .
Kemp: its woes and a weak European economy have likely translated into only modest oil market tightening since June.
With supply tightening, the key question for the oil market now is whetheritwould pull off a true economic rebound to prop up sentiment and meet demand expectations.
Despite lingering concerns about economy, global oil demand hit a record high in June and could be on track for another record in August, the International Energy Agency (IEA) said in its latest monthly report.
The cuts from OPEC+ and Saudi Arabia, coupled with expected continued strength in demand, are set to result in inventory draws for the rest of the year, supporting oil prices, analysts and forecasting agencies say.
However, demand and the market tightness may have been underestimated.
Global oil demand hit a record 103 million bpd in June, and August could see yet another peak, the IEA said in its closely-watched Oil Market Report (OMR) for August. World oil demand is set to grow by 2.2 million bpd this year, the agency noted.
Fuel demand in Europe is also strong in the summer.
Energy consultancy FGE estimates that European gasoline demand rose by 3% year over year in June and by 5% annually in July, to the highest level since 2011.
Bank ING assumes that U.S. oil demand will be largely flat year-on-year.
"But this may be too conservative, given that implied gasoline demand has been tracking above last year's levels for much of the year," Warren Patterson, Head of Commodities Strategy at ING, wrote in a note on Thursday.
Implied U.S. gasoline demand so far this year has averaged 8.88 million barrels per day (bpd), up by 1.4% year-on-year, Patterson noted.
The past few weeks have seen some pullback in demand, which could be due to the rising gasoline prices, analysts say.
"Constructive fundamentals should mean more strength in the months ahead," ING's Patterson said.
Standard Chartered analysts see the sharp tightening in most balances for the second half of 2023 starting to spill over into physical markets. Oil could hit an intra-quarter high of $100 per barrel in Q4, according to the bank.
The oil market is in a bullish move and heading well into the $90 per barrel range, Bob McNally, President at Rapidan Energy, said early this week.
