中國(guó)石化新聞網(wǎng)訊 據(jù)今日石油網(wǎng)2023年8月16日?qǐng)?bào)道，8月份的《全球供應(yīng)報(bào)告》強(qiáng)調(diào)，對(duì)非歐佩克國(guó)家的液體供應(yīng)的預(yù)測(cè)出現(xiàn)了有利的轉(zhuǎn)變，表明今年預(yù)計(jì)將平均每天再增加140萬(wàn)桶。
圭亞那、巴西、美國(guó)、挪威、哈薩克斯坦等將成為今年全球液體供應(yīng)增長(zhǎng)的主要推動(dòng)力。
今年1月，歐佩克表示，圭亞那目前的原油日產(chǎn)量預(yù)計(jì)將增加大約9萬(wàn)桶。這將使圭亞那今年的液體產(chǎn)量比?？松梨诠救ツ赀\(yùn)營(yíng)的項(xiàng)目的1.01億桶產(chǎn)量高出3200萬(wàn)桶。圭亞那帕亞拉項(xiàng)目預(yù)計(jì)今年將獲得第一批石油。
圭亞那麗莎-1項(xiàng)目和麗莎-2項(xiàng)目在今年啟動(dòng)，日產(chǎn)量分別為14萬(wàn)桶和22萬(wàn)桶。這兩個(gè)項(xiàng)目目前的日總產(chǎn)量接近40萬(wàn)桶。
不確定性繼續(xù)籠罩著今年全球原油市場(chǎng)的前景。美國(guó)頁(yè)巖油產(chǎn)量的潛力和計(jì)劃外維護(hù)活動(dòng)的發(fā)生等因素可能會(huì)影響最終結(jié)果。
展望2024年，非歐佩克國(guó)家的液體供應(yīng)預(yù)期保持一致，預(yù)計(jì)日增140萬(wàn)桶，與之前的評(píng)估保持穩(wěn)定。預(yù)計(jì)未來(lái)一年，美國(guó)、加拿大、圭亞那、巴西、挪威和哈薩克斯坦將成為全球預(yù)計(jì)液體供應(yīng)增加的主要推動(dòng)力。這一增長(zhǎng)主要?dú)w因于這些國(guó)家現(xiàn)有項(xiàng)目產(chǎn)量的持續(xù)增加。相反，預(yù)計(jì)墨西哥和阿塞拜疆在此期間的液體產(chǎn)量下降幅度最大。
今年歐佩克非天然氣液體和非常規(guī)液體產(chǎn)量也有望增長(zhǎng)。預(yù)測(cè)顯示，今年日產(chǎn)量將增加4.6萬(wàn)桶，平均日產(chǎn)量將達(dá)到540萬(wàn)桶。展望2024年，這部分預(yù)計(jì)將再日增65萬(wàn)桶，達(dá)到日均550萬(wàn)桶。
李峻 譯自 今日石油網(wǎng)
原文如下：
Another 1.4 million bpd of non-OPEC supply growth expected in 2024
Projections for non-OPEC liquids supply have taken a favourable turn, indicating an anticipated expansion of 1.4 million barrels per day (mb/d) in 2023, the August Global Supply Report highlights.
Guyana, Brazil, the United States, Norway, Kazakhstan will be the primary drivers of the liquids supply growth in 2023.
In January, OPEC said it expected Guyana to add about 90,000 barrels of crude per day to its current output. This would put Guyana’s 2023 output to 32 million barrels more than the 101 million barrels produced in 2022 by the ExxonMobil-operated projects. The Payara project is expected to achieve first oil this year.
The Liza 1 and 2 projects started the year with production at 140,000 b/d and 220,000 b/d respectively. They are now collectively producing close to 400,000 b/d.
Uncertainties continue to cloud the outlook for 2023. Factors such as the potential of US shale oil output and the occurrence of unplanned maintenance activities may influence the final outcome.
Looking ahead to 2024, the expectation of non-OPEC liquids supply remains consistent, with a projection of 1.4 mb/d growth, holding steady from previous assessments. For the coming year, the United States, Canada, Guyana, Brazil, Norway, and Kazakhstan are expected to serve as the main drivers behind the projected increase in liquids supply. This growth is primarily attributed to the ongoing ramp-up of existing projects in these countries. Conversely, Mexico and Azerbaijan are anticipated to experience the largest declines in production during this period.
The OPEC non-gas liquids (NGLs) and non-conventional liquids segment is also poised for growth. Forecasts indicate an increase of 46 thousand barrels per day (tb/d) in 2023, bringing the average to 5.4 million barrels per day. Looking further into 2024, this segment is expected to expand by an additional 65 tb/d, reaching an average of 5.5 million barrels per day.
