中國石化新聞網(wǎng)訊 據(jù)油價(jià)網(wǎng)2023年8月10日?qǐng)?bào)道，歐佩克8月10日在其最新一期的月度石油市場(chǎng)報(bào)告(MOMR)中表示，在即將到來的美國颶風(fēng)季節(jié)，潛在的燃料生產(chǎn)中斷可能會(huì)在未來幾周收緊大西洋盆地市場(chǎng)。
歐佩克對(duì)“全球石油市場(chǎng)的穩(wěn)定”持樂觀態(tài)度，因?yàn)槊绹蜌W洲的汽油和中間餾分油庫存低于平均水平，而且預(yù)計(jì)今年下半年基本面將保持健康。歐佩克在報(bào)告的專題文章中表示：“盡管目前全球煉油廠的運(yùn)行水平較高，但美國和歐洲的汽油和中間餾分油庫存仍遠(yuǎn)低于最近五年的平均水平?！?/p>
歐佩克的經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家在報(bào)告中寫道：“展望未來，美國颶風(fēng)季節(jié)期間的煉油廠維護(hù)和潛在的生產(chǎn)中斷可能會(huì)使大西洋盆地的市場(chǎng)趨緊，從而促使更強(qiáng)的經(jīng)濟(jì)動(dòng)機(jī)推動(dòng)?xùn)|西方的產(chǎn)品流動(dòng)。”
與此同時(shí)，歐佩克表示，對(duì)今年下半年石油需求強(qiáng)勁的預(yù)期，加上歐佩克+隨時(shí)準(zhǔn)備在需要時(shí)干預(yù)市場(chǎng)，“將確保全球石油市場(chǎng)的穩(wěn)定”。
此外，歐佩克指出，7月份石油市場(chǎng)基本面前景有所改善，這反映在市場(chǎng)結(jié)構(gòu)的加強(qiáng)上，所有主要石油期貨價(jià)格都轉(zhuǎn)向了堅(jiān)實(shí)的現(xiàn)貨溢價(jià)結(jié)構(gòu)。
歐佩克對(duì)今年全球石油需求增長(zhǎng)的預(yù)測(cè)與上個(gè)月的報(bào)告保持不變，預(yù)計(jì)需求日增240萬桶。今年的全球石油總需求預(yù)計(jì)將日均1.02億桶。
歐佩克預(yù)計(jì)，明年全球石油日需求將比今年再日增220萬桶，這要?dú)w功于全球經(jīng)濟(jì)的強(qiáng)勁增長(zhǎng)和亞洲經(jīng)濟(jì)的持續(xù)改善，預(yù)計(jì)這將提振消費(fèi)。歐佩克預(yù)計(jì)2024年全球石油總需求將日均1.043億桶。
李峻 譯自 油價(jià)網(wǎng)
原文如下：
OPEC: Robust Demand, U.S. Hurricane Season Could Tighten The Market
Potential fuel production outages during the upcoming U.S. hurricane season could tighten the Atlantic Basin market in the coming weeks, OPEC said in its Monthly Oil Market Report (MOMR) on Thursday.
The cartel is upbeat on the “stability of the global oil market” amid lower-than average gasoline and middle distillate inventories in the United States and Europe and expectations of healthy fundamentals in the second half of 2023. “Despite the current elevated level of global refinery runs, gasoline and middle distillate stocks remain well below the latest five-year averages in the US and Europe,” OPEC said in its feature article in the report.
“Looking forward, refinery maintenance and potential production outages during the US hurricane season could potentially tighten the Atlantic Basin market, hence prompting stronger economic incentives for East-to-West product flows,” the cartel’s economists wrote in the report.
At the same time, expectations of robust oil demand in the second half of the year, plus the OPEC+ readiness to intervene on the market at any time and as needed, “will ensure stability of the global oil market,” OPEC said.
Moreover, OPEC noted that the outlook for oil market fundamentals improved in July, which was reflected in the strengthening of the market structure as all major oil futures prices turned to a firm backwardation structure.
OPEC left its forecast for global oil demand growth in 2023 unchanged from last month’s report, and expects demand growth at 2.4 million barrels per day (bpd). This year’s total global demand is expected to average 102.0 million bpd.
For next year, the cartel sees world oil demand rising by another 2.2 million bpd compared to 2023, thanks to solid global economic growth and continued improvements in Asia which are expected to boost consumption. In 2024, OPEC expects total world oil demand to average 104.3 million bpd.
