摩根士丹利的一項(xiàng)分析顯示，由于歐洲的天然氣庫存充足，因此2023/2024年可能出現(xiàn)的暖冬可能會使歐洲天然氣價格大幅下降一半

相反，如果2023/2024年冬季比以往平均氣溫低，可再生能源發(fā)電量低，天然氣價格可能會飆升至相當(dāng)高的水平

盡管預(yù)測樂觀，但冬季天氣和可再生能源有效性的不確定性使未來歐洲的天然氣價格難以預(yù)測

中國石化新聞網(wǎng)訊 據(jù)油價網(wǎng)2023年7月16日報道，歐洲的天然氣庫存時下處于較高水平，有望比計劃提前滿倉。這讓政府和行業(yè)相信，去年歐洲發(fā)生的能源危機(jī)，2023/2024年冬季不會重演。

目前歐盟基準(zhǔn)天然氣價格是去年夏天歐洲管道天然氣削減供應(yīng)時最高價格的十分之一。

然而，在即將到來的冬季之前和期間，天然氣價格和需求將取決于歐盟無法控制的兩個因素，即天氣氣溫和可再生能源在混合能源占比中的貢獻(xiàn)，因此價格波動性將繼續(xù)存在。

由于冬季天氣溫和，歐盟消費(fèi)量減少以及能源成本高導(dǎo)致的工業(yè)需求破壞，歐洲順利度過了2022/2023年冬季，沒有出現(xiàn)天然氣短缺或天然氣配給。

在2023/2024年冬季到來之前，歐洲只能希望出現(xiàn)又一個氣溫較溫和的冬季，而不會出現(xiàn)長時間的冰凍增加對供暖和燃?xì)獍l(fā)電的需求。

摩根士丹利表示，如果又一個暖冬來臨（這是可能的，但遠(yuǎn)非肯定）歐洲的天然氣價格可能會從目前的水平暴跌一半，暴跌至每兆瓦時16.85美元(15歐元)。

摩根士丹利分析師日前在一份研究報告中寫道，“如果天氣持續(xù)溫暖，可再生能源表現(xiàn)強(qiáng)勁”，基準(zhǔn)天然氣價格可能會從2020年底跌至這一水平。

歐洲天然氣交易基準(zhǔn)TTF中心的近月期貨在荷蘭當(dāng)?shù)貢r間7月13日收于每兆瓦時30.60美元(27.24歐元)，而12月至明年2月的期貨價格約為每兆瓦時56美元(50歐元)。

摩根士丹利的15歐元預(yù)測只是該行對預(yù)計10月份冬季供暖季節(jié)啟動后對歐洲天然氣價格的預(yù)測之一。

在另一種情況下，如果2023/2024年的冬天比平時更冷，而可再生能源不能產(chǎn)生太多的電力，天然氣價格可能會飆升至每兆瓦時112美元(100歐元)。

摩根士丹利預(yù)計，今年10月之后，使用加權(quán)平均值的天然氣價格更有可能在每兆瓦時50美元(45歐元)左右交易。

本周，歐洲的天然氣價格從6月份的水平下跌，因?yàn)樵诠I(yè)放緩的情況下，需求繼續(xù)普遍疲軟，盡管熱浪持續(xù)了很長時間。

由于挪威幾個大型天然氣田的維護(hù)作業(yè)和出口路線減少了通過挪威管道向歐洲供應(yīng)的天然氣，6月份天然氣價格飆升。挪威目前是歐洲最大的單一天然氣供應(yīng)國。

隨著挪威特羅爾大天然氣田從維護(hù)作業(yè)中恢復(fù)，挪威的天然氣供應(yīng)增加了，再加上需求不溫不火，歐洲天然氣價格跌至一個月來的最低點(diǎn)。

天然氣庫存也有所增加，讓歐盟各國政府在冬季來臨之前更有信心。根據(jù)歐洲天然氣基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施公司公布的數(shù)據(jù)，到7月12日，歐盟各地的天然氣儲存設(shè)施已填滿80.3%。

歐盟已經(jīng)設(shè)定了一個目標(biāo)，到今年11月1日天然氣庫存量將達(dá)到90%。據(jù)摩根士丹利稱，歐盟不僅會提前實(shí)現(xiàn)這一目標(biāo)，而且還可能在9月初將天然氣儲罐填滿100%。

挪威研究機(jī)構(gòu)雷斯塔能源還認(rèn)為，歐洲將比計劃提前達(dá)到目標(biāo)。

雷斯塔能源高級分析師 Lu Ming Pang 本月早些時候表示：“考慮到歷史需求，并假設(shè)不同的供應(yīng)情況，2023/2024年冬季前天然氣儲存設(shè)施甚至可能100%填滿，導(dǎo)致天然氣流量不得不轉(zhuǎn)移到其他地方?！?/p>

今年冬天，對歐洲消費(fèi)者和各國政府來說，天然氣儲存設(shè)施的完全填滿將是一個好消息。自去年秋天以來，歐洲已經(jīng)成功修建完成了新的液化天然氣進(jìn)口終端，為液化天然氣貨物的穩(wěn)定流入提供了保障，在2022/2023年冬季之前，情況不會像人們擔(dān)心的那樣糟糕。

但冬季天氣和可再生能源提供更多電力的能力存在很大的不確定性。自能源危機(jī)爆發(fā)以來，歐洲還沒有經(jīng)歷過真正寒冷的冬天，這使得價格預(yù)測就像7月份預(yù)測12月份的氣溫一樣棘手。

李峻 譯自 油價網(wǎng)

原文如下：

A Mild Winter Could Cut Europe’s Natural Gas Prices In Half

·     Europe's gas stockpiles are plentiful, with a possible mild winter potentially reducing natural gas prices by half, according to a Morgan Stanley analysis.

·     In contrast, if the winter is colder than average and renewable energy generation is low, gas prices could spike to significantly high levels.

·     Despite the optimistic forecast, uncertainties regarding winter weather and the effectiveness of renewable energy sources leave future gas prices unpredictable

Europe’s natural gas stockpiles are at elevated levels and on track to be full sooner than planned. This gives governments and industries confidence that last year’s energy crisis will not be repeated. 

The benchmark natural gas prices are one-tenth of the records seen last summer when the largger producer slashed pipeline supply to Europe. 

Volatility, however, will continue as prices and demand ahead of and during the coming winter will depend on two factors that are out of EU control—the weather and the contribution of renewable energy sources to the mix depending on the weather. 

Thanks to milder winter weather, reduced EU consumption, and demand destruction in industry due to the high energy costs, Europe made it through the 2022/2023 winter without gas shortages or gas rationing.

Ahead of the 2023/2024 winter, Europe can only hope for another winter of milder temperatures without prolonged periods of freezes that would boost demand for heating and for gas-fired power generation. 

In case of another mild winter – which is possible but far from certain – Europe’s gas prices could plunge from current levels and halve to $16.85 (15 euros) per megawatt-hour (MWh), according to Morgan Stanley. 

“If weather is persistently warm and renewables perform strongly,” the benchmark gas prices could crumble to the levels from the end of 2020, Morgan Stanley analysts wrote in a research note this week, as carried by Bloomberg. 

The front-month futures at the TTF hub, the benchmark for Europe’s gas trading, settled at $30.60 (27.24 euros) per MWh on Thursday, while futures prices for December through February are around $56 (50 euros) per MWh. 

Morgan Stanley’s 15-euro call is just one of the bank’s scenarios for Europe’s natural gas prices after October when the winter heating season is expected to begin. 

At the other end of the scenarios, prices could spike to $112 (100 euros) per MWh if the 2023/2024 winter is colder than normal and renewables cannot generate too much electricity. 

After October, using a weighted average, Morgan Stanley sees prices more likely to trade around $50 (45 euros) per MWh.  

This week, Europe’s prices slumped from June levels as demand – despite a major prolonged heatwave – continues to be generally weak amid an industrial slowdown. 

Prices had jumped in June as maintenance on several large Norwegian gas fields and export routes reduced supply to Europe via pipelines from Norway, which is now Europe’s single largest gas supplier. 

With the giant Troll gas field returning from maintenance, Norwegian supply increased. Combined with tepid demand, this sent European gas prices to the lowest in a month. 

Stockpiles are also elevated, giving further confidence to governments ahead of the winter. As of July 12, gas storage sites across the EU were 80.3% full, according to data by Gas Infrastructure Europe. 

The EU has set a target to reach 90% full gas storage by November 1, 2023. Not only will it hit that target ahead of schedule, but it could also fill its storage tanks to 100% by early September, according to Morgan Stanley.  

Rystad Energy also believes Europe will reach the target earlier than planned. 

“Considering historical demand, and assuming different supply scenarios, storage facilities could even be full ahead of winter this year, resulting in gas flows having to be diverted elsewhere,” senior analyst Lu Ming Pang said earlier this month. 

Full gas storage sites will be good news for European consumers and governments this winter. Additional LNG import terminals that Europe has managed to install since last autumn and steady inflows of LNG cargoes are also providing some comfort that things can’t be as bad as feared ahead of the 2022/2023 winter. 

But uncertainties are high about winter weather and the ability of renewables to provide more electricity. Since the energy crisis began, Europe hasn’t seen a really cold winter yet, which makes price predictions as tricky as predicting in July the temperatures for December.