到2022年7月，綠氫生產(chǎn)的成本比灰氫或藍(lán)氫更高，其價(jià)格約為每公斤4到5美元，而灰氫的成本約為每公斤2美元

得益于電解技術(shù)的改進(jìn)和規(guī)模經(jīng)濟(jì)效應(yīng)的支持，預(yù)計(jì)在長(zhǎng)期內(nèi)對(duì)綠氫生產(chǎn)進(jìn)行大規(guī)模投資將有助于降低成本

除了生產(chǎn)成本外，綠氫的運(yùn)輸也面臨著另一個(gè)挑戰(zhàn)，需要專用基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施，從而增加了綠氫部署的整體費(fèi)用

中國(guó)石化新聞網(wǎng)訊 據(jù)油價(jià)網(wǎng)7月15日?qǐng)?bào)道，對(duì)于綠氫的未來(lái)，人們充滿樂(lè)觀，許多人認(rèn)為它將是取代石油的衍生選擇，并且在與電池技術(shù)競(jìng)爭(zhēng)時(shí)具有很高的競(jìng)爭(zhēng)力。然而，由于生產(chǎn)規(guī)模較小和高昂的成本，我們離實(shí)現(xiàn)這一目標(biāo)還有很長(zhǎng)的路要走。全球許多公司計(jì)劃生產(chǎn)綠色氫氣，但一些公司正在應(yīng)對(duì)清潔燃料推廣遲緩的挑戰(zhàn)。盡管近年來(lái)在該領(lǐng)域加大了投資，生產(chǎn)工藝有所改進(jìn)，但綠氫的生產(chǎn)和運(yùn)輸成本仍遠(yuǎn)高于其他燃料，包括其他類型的氫氣。

進(jìn)行石油衍生出的灰氫或藍(lán)氫生產(chǎn)被認(rèn)為是相對(duì)低成本的，許多公司已經(jīng)依賴于這種燃料?；覛涫抢锰烊粴馍a(chǎn)的，它經(jīng)過(guò)蒸汽甲烷重整(SMR)工藝，利用高壓蒸汽將甲烷分解，產(chǎn)生分離的氫氣、一氧化碳和二氧化碳分子。該過(guò)程產(chǎn)生大量二氧化碳，每噸氫氣制備約產(chǎn)生9到10噸二氧化碳。但只要天然氣價(jià)格保持穩(wěn)定，這也是具有高度成本效益的。到2022年7月為止，灰色氫氣的成本約為每公斤2美元。

相形之下，綠氫生產(chǎn)制備更昂貴。綠氫是利用可再生能源驅(qū)動(dòng)電解過(guò)程，從水中分離出氫氣，只產(chǎn)生蒸汽作為排放物——它是碳中和的，這對(duì)于希望減碳的公司非常有吸引力。然而，直到2022年7月，生產(chǎn)綠氫的成本約為每公斤4到5美元，甚至更高。一些行業(yè)專家認(rèn)為，綠氫生產(chǎn)的高成本不會(huì)很快下降。

綠氫被許多國(guó)際機(jī)構(gòu)，如國(guó)際能源署（IEA）和國(guó)際可再生能源機(jī)構(gòu)（IRENA）視為較難減排領(lǐng)域的碳減排解決方案。隨著全球各國(guó)政府和私營(yíng)公司對(duì)綠氫業(yè)務(wù)進(jìn)行更多資金投入，人們對(duì)綠氫的生產(chǎn)成本大幅下降抱有很高期望——綠氫成本可能降至每公斤0.5美元，但也有人認(rèn)為將很難將成本降低到每公斤3美元以下。

IRENA在2020年11月和2020年12月分別發(fā)布了兩份研究報(bào)告，旨在推動(dòng)全球綠氫生產(chǎn)：《綠氫：政策制定指南》和《綠氫成本降低：推廣電解槽以實(shí)現(xiàn)1.5攝氏度氣候目標(biāo)》。這些研究旨在鼓勵(lì)政府和私營(yíng)公司擴(kuò)大生產(chǎn)規(guī)模以降低成本。然而到目前為止，綠氫的生產(chǎn)價(jià)格仍然較高，當(dāng)天然氣價(jià)格穩(wěn)定時(shí)，其成本大約是灰氫生產(chǎn)成本的2到3倍。

然而，隨著更多資金投入研發(fā)，自2010年以來(lái)電解槽價(jià)格已經(jīng)下降了約60%；IRENA表示，短期內(nèi)這一成本可能再降低40%，長(zhǎng)期內(nèi)可能降低80%。這種成本降低的預(yù)測(cè)依賴于提高其性能的電解技術(shù)實(shí)現(xiàn)更多創(chuàng)新，并可以擴(kuò)大制造能力，實(shí)施標(biāo)準(zhǔn)化和增加規(guī)模經(jīng)濟(jì)效應(yīng)。

另一個(gè)需要考慮的挑戰(zhàn)是運(yùn)輸成本。伍德麥肯茲公司（Wood Mackenzie）的氫領(lǐng)域研究主管Murray Douglas表示：“氫氣的運(yùn)輸成本相當(dāng)高，運(yùn)輸比天然氣困難，而且從技術(shù)和工程角度來(lái)看它更加復(fù)雜。”對(duì)此有所擔(dān)憂的不僅僅是他。美國(guó)能源部（DoE）在關(guān)于綠氫的報(bào)告中提到了一些挑戰(zhàn)，包括“降低成本，提高能源效率，保持氫氣純度和最小化氫氣泄漏”。DoE認(rèn)為需要進(jìn)行更多研究來(lái)“綜合考慮氫氣生產(chǎn)選項(xiàng)和氫氣輸送選項(xiàng)時(shí)的權(quán)衡”。

全球各公司現(xiàn)在正在考慮綠氫生產(chǎn)設(shè)施最佳選址。雖然澳大利亞、北非和中東地區(qū)發(fā)展這類項(xiàng)目的潛力巨大，但這些地區(qū)可能離其主要市場(chǎng)相當(dāng)遠(yuǎn)。Douglas強(qiáng)調(diào)，“如果通過(guò)管道輸送綠氫，則需要建立專用管道，連接生產(chǎn)商和最終用戶?；蛘呔G氫可以以氨的形式進(jìn)行運(yùn)輸，氨與氮混合后可以運(yùn)輸和銷售給諸如肥料生產(chǎn)商之類的消費(fèi)端。否則，用戶將不得不將氨裂解回氮，這將增加成本并導(dǎo)致能量損失”。

為了使綠氫能夠如人們所希望的那樣成功，需要進(jìn)行重大投資以克服這些挑戰(zhàn)。行業(yè)協(xié)會(huì)Hydrogen Europe的首席執(zhí)行官Jorgo Chatzimarkakis建議建立認(rèn)證體系，以確保任何綠氫生產(chǎn)都是由可再生能源驅(qū)動(dòng)的。此外，還需要制定深入研究的交付戰(zhàn)略，以確保生產(chǎn)設(shè)施與綠氫市場(chǎng)充分連接。目前這在一些項(xiàng)目中已經(jīng)得到體現(xiàn)，比如西普薩公司（Cepsa）在南歐和北歐之間建立的綠氫通道。

盡管運(yùn)輸成本較高，但國(guó)際化大公司已經(jīng)掌握了像處理天然氣一樣運(yùn)輸綠氫的成熟技術(shù)，但一些公司面對(duì)成本而卻步。因此，該行業(yè)必須降低生產(chǎn)成本，以減輕運(yùn)輸方面的一些壓力。盡管綠氫產(chǎn)業(yè)仍面臨著一些重大挑戰(zhàn)，延遲了清潔燃料的大規(guī)模部署，但在未來(lái)幾十年里對(duì)該領(lǐng)域的更大投資可能會(huì)解決許多問(wèn)題，并實(shí)現(xiàn)全球大規(guī)模的綠氫生產(chǎn)。

郝芬 譯自 油價(jià)網(wǎng)

原文如下：

Navigating The Hurdles Of Green Hydrogen Production

Green hydrogen production is costlier than grey or blue hydrogen, with its price as of July 2022 being around $4 to $5 per kilo, while grey hydrogen costs around $2 per kilo.

Significant investments in green hydrogen production are expected to lower costs in the long term, supported by improvements in electrolysis technology and economies of scale.

Apart from production costs, the transportation of green hydrogen presents another challenge, requiring dedicated infrastructure and adding to the overall expense of green hydrogen deployment.

There is great optimism around the future of green hydrogen, with many seeing it as a super-fuel that will replace oil-derived options, as well as be highly competitive with electric battery technology. However, we are far from achieving this ambition yet, mainly due to small-scale production operations and high costs. Many companies around the globe have plans to produce green hydrogen, but some are battling challenges that are slowing down the rollout of the clean fuel. Despite improvements in production processes, thanks to greater investment in the sector in recent years, the production and transportation costs of green hydrogen remain much higher than other fuels, including other types of hydrogen.

Producing grey or blue hydrogen, which is derived from fossil fuels, is viewed as relatively low cost, with many companies already relying on this fuel. Grey hydrogen is produced using natural gas. It undergoes a steam methane reforming (SMR) process, which breaks methane apart using high-pressure steam, which creates separate hydrogen, carbon monoxide, and carbon dioxide molecules. This process produces high levels of carbon dioxide, around 9 to 10 tonnes of CO2 for every tonne of hydrogen. But it is also highly cost-effective, so long as natural gas prices remain stable. In July 2022, the cost of grey hydrogen was around $2 per kilo.

In contrast, green hydrogen production methods are more expensive. Green hydrogen is made using renewable energy sources to power an electrolysis process that separates hydrogen from water, producing just steam as a waste product. It is carbon neutral, making it highly attractive for companies looking to decarbonise. However, by July 2022, it cost around $4 to $5 a kilo, or even more, to produce green hydrogen. And some industry experts believe that the high cost of green hydrogen production isn’t going to fall any time soon.

Green hydrogen is viewed by many international agencies, such as the International Energy Agency (IEA) and the International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA), as a solution to decarbonise ‘hard-to-abate’ sectors. As more governments and private companies around the globe pump funding into green hydrogen operations, there are high hopes that the production cost of green hydrogen to fall substantially, to as low as $0.5 per kilo. However, others believe it will be difficult to drive the cost to lower than $3 per kilo.

IRENA published two studies to drive green hydrogen production worldwide: Green Hydrogen: A Guide to Policy Making in November 2020, and Green Hydrogen Cost Reduction: Scaling up Electrolysers to Meet the 1.5°C climate goal in December 2020. These studies were aimed at encouraging governments and private companies to scale up production, aimed at driving down costs. However, the price of green hydrogen production so far remains elevated, at around 2 to 3 times the cost of grey hydrogen production, when gas prices are stable.

Nevertheless, progress has been seen thanks to greater funding into research and development, with the price of electrolysers falling by around 60 percent since 2010. According to IRENA, they could decrease by a further 40 percent in the short term and by as much as 80 percent in the long term. This cost reduction prediction relies on greater innovation in electrolysis technology to improve its performance, as well as scaling up manufacturing capacity, standardisation, and growing economies of scale.

Another challenge to consider is the cost of transportation. Murray Douglas, the head of hydrogen research at Wood Mackenzie, stated that “Hydrogen is pretty expensive to move… “It’s more difficult to move than natural gas ... technically, engineering wise … it’s just harder.” And Douglas is not the only one concerned about this. The U.S. Department of Energy (DoE) has reported challenges with green hydrogen including “reducing cost, increasing energy efficiency, maintaining hydrogen purity, and minimizing hydrogen leakage.” The DoE believes greater research is required to “analyse the trade-offs between the hydrogen production options and the hydrogen delivery options when considered together as a system.”

Companies worldwide are now considering the best locations for their green hydrogen production facilities. While there is great potential for the development of plants in Australia, North Africa, and the Middle East, these could be very far from their principal markets. Douglas highlighted the need for a dedicated pipeline, constructed between the producer and end-user if moving green hydrogen by pipe. Alternatively, green hydrogen could be transported as ammonia with nitrogen, which could be shipped and sold to consumers such as fertiliser producers. Otherwise, users would have to crack the ammonia back into nitrogen, which would increase costs and result in energy losses.

For green hydrogen to be as successful as everyone hopes, it will require significant investment to overcome these challenges. Jorgo Chatzimarkakis, the CEO of the industry association Hydrogen Europe, suggests the need for a certification system, to guarantee that any green hydrogen production was powered by renewable sources. Further, a well-researched delivery strategy needs to be developed to ensure that production facilities are adequately linked with green hydrogen markets. This has been seen in projects such as Cepsa’s green hydrogen corridor between southern and northern Europe.

While transportation costs are high, companies already understand how to move green hydrogen as they have been doing it the same way with natural gas for decades. But some are deterred by high costs. Therefore, the industry must drive down production costs to alleviate some of the pressure on transportation. Although the green hydrogen industry continues to face several major challenges, preventing a wide-scale deployment of the clean fuel, greater investment in the sector over the coming decades will likely fix many of these problems and allow for the deployment of global, large-scale green hydrogen production.