中國石化新聞網(wǎng)訊 據(jù)彭博新聞社2023年7月13日報(bào)道，歐佩克預(yù)計(jì)明年全球石油市場將更加緊張，因?yàn)闅W佩克預(yù)測全球明年石油需求增長量大于其他主要預(yù)測機(jī)構(gòu)。
歐佩克7月13日在其對2024年市場的首次詳細(xì)評估中表示，明年全球石油日消費(fèi)量將增加220萬桶達(dá)到1.043億桶。這是為石油消費(fèi)國提供建議的IEA預(yù)測增長率的兩倍。
需求增長將超過來自歐佩克以外地區(qū)的預(yù)期供應(yīng)增長，使世界對歐佩克原油的日需求量達(dá)到3020萬桶，比6月份增加大約200萬桶。這可能使歐佩克能夠緩解今年為支撐價(jià)格而實(shí)施的生產(chǎn)限制。
沙特阿拉伯及其合作伙伴已經(jīng)遏制了原油產(chǎn)量，以平衡市場，因?yàn)槿蚪?jīng)濟(jì)疲軟，歐佩克+的個(gè)別出口國供應(yīng)出乎意料地強(qiáng)勁。
7月12日，倫敦油價(jià)兩個(gè)月來首次攀升至每桶80美元上方，原因是這些供應(yīng)限制措施(包括沙特在7月和8月的額外單邊減產(chǎn))收緊了市場。盡管經(jīng)濟(jì)指標(biāo)不穩(wěn)定，但亞洲需求似乎也很強(qiáng)勁。
總部位于巴黎的IEA周四也發(fā)布了最新展望，預(yù)計(jì)明年全球石油日需求量將增加110萬桶。歐佩克表示，燃油效率的提高和電動(dòng)汽車的迅速普及將限制石油消費(fèi)的增長。
報(bào)告稱，歐佩克的13個(gè)成員國6月份的原油平均日產(chǎn)量為2820萬桶，略高于5月份。
由23個(gè)國家組成的歐佩克+聯(lián)盟將于下個(gè)月正式舉行監(jiān)督會(huì)議，但具體日期尚未確定。該聯(lián)盟將于7月26日舉行全體石油部長會(huì)議。
李峻 譯自 彭博新聞社
原文如下：
OPEC Sees Even Tighter Oil Market in 2024 as Demand Climbs
OPEC predicted an even tighter global oil market next year, as the group anticipates a much bigger demand increase than other major forecasters.
World oil consumption will climb by 2.2 million barrels a day next year to reach 104.3 million a day, the organization said on Thursday in its first detailed assessment of 2024. That’s the double the growth rate projected by the International Energy Agency, which advises consuming nations.
The demand increase would outstrip the projected boost in supply from outside the cartel, pushing the world’s daily appetite for OPEC’s crude to 30.2 million barrels — or roughly 2 million barrels more than it pumped last month. That could allow the group to ease production constraints it’s making this year to shore up prices.
Saudi Arabia and its partners have curbed output to balance markets amid a faltering global economy and unexpectedly robust supplies from exporters including two heavyweights of OPEC+.
Oil prices climbed above $80 a barrel in London on Wednesday for the first time in two months as those supply curbs, which include extra unilateral cuts by the Saudis in July and August, tighten markets. Demand in Aisa also appears robust despite shaky economic indicators.
The Paris-based IEA, which also released its latest outlook on Thursday, sees demand growing by 1.1 million barrels a day next year. The expansion in oil consumption will be limited by improving fuel efficiency and the burgeoning popularity of electric vehicles, the agency said.
The 13 members of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries pumped an average of 28.2 million barrels a day in June, fractionally more than the previous month, according to the report.
The 23-nation OPEC+ alliance is formally due to hold a monitoring meeting next month, though no date has yet been set. The coalition is scheduled to have a full ministerial meeting on Nov. 26.
