美國(guó)能源信息署（EIA）預(yù)測(cè)，今年美國(guó)的石油總產(chǎn)量將達(dá)到1261萬(wàn)桶/日，超過(guò)之前歷史最高水平的1232萬(wàn)桶/日

能源專家普遍對(duì)美國(guó)原油供應(yīng)持悲觀態(tài)度，許多人認(rèn)為美國(guó)原油產(chǎn)量已經(jīng)達(dá)到峰值

不斷上漲的成本以及有限的勞動(dòng)力和設(shè)備供應(yīng)是制約美國(guó)頁(yè)巖油增產(chǎn)努力的問(wèn)題

中國(guó)石化新聞網(wǎng)訊 據(jù)油價(jià)網(wǎng)7月12日?qǐng)?bào)道，去年，油價(jià)在地緣政治沖突后創(chuàng)下數(shù)十年來(lái)的高點(diǎn)，促使政府敦促美國(guó)生產(chǎn)商和歐佩克加快增產(chǎn)以控制不斷上漲的油價(jià)。然而，沙特阿拉伯及其盟友采取了完全相反的做法，當(dāng)油價(jià)開(kāi)始下跌時(shí)削減產(chǎn)量。

美國(guó)至少可以慶幸美國(guó)頁(yè)巖油區(qū)聽(tīng)從號(hào)召：美國(guó)能源信息署預(yù)測(cè)，今年美國(guó)的總產(chǎn)量將達(dá)到1261萬(wàn)桶/日，超過(guò)2019年創(chuàng)下1232萬(wàn)桶/日的歷史最高水平，并輕松超過(guò)去年的1189萬(wàn)桶/日。美國(guó)原油產(chǎn)量同比增長(zhǎng)9%，削弱了歐佩克限制供應(yīng)以推高油價(jià)的努力。

能源專家普遍對(duì)美國(guó)原油供應(yīng)持悲觀態(tài)度，許多人認(rèn)為其已經(jīng)達(dá)到峰值。彭博社表示：“這一預(yù)測(cè)表明，盡管油價(jià)維持在每桶90美元左右（約合人民幣577元），大約是大多數(shù)國(guó)內(nèi)生產(chǎn)商的盈虧平衡成本的兩倍，美國(guó)頁(yè)巖增長(zhǎng)的速度有所放緩。如果這一趨勢(shì)持續(xù)下去，將導(dǎo)致全球市場(chǎng)無(wú)法獲得額外的桶數(shù)來(lái)彌補(bǔ)歐佩克+的減產(chǎn)以及地緣政治沖突造成的供應(yīng)中斷?！?/span>

彭博社引用了康菲石油首席執(zhí)行官Ryan Lance的評(píng)論，稱不斷上漲的成本以及有限的勞動(dòng)力和設(shè)備供應(yīng)是制約美國(guó)頁(yè)巖生產(chǎn)商迅速增產(chǎn)努力的一些問(wèn)題。然而，彭博社也指出，導(dǎo)致增長(zhǎng)放緩的最大因素是大多數(shù)美國(guó)頁(yè)巖公司改變了策略，從注重增長(zhǎng)和擴(kuò)張轉(zhuǎn)向更加謹(jǐn)慎的資本紀(jì)律，并向股東返還更多現(xiàn)金。

提高效率

對(duì)于美國(guó)頁(yè)巖區(qū)域來(lái)說(shuō)，幸運(yùn)的是，改善鉆探和成本效率不僅意味著他們能夠用更低成本獲得更多產(chǎn)量，而且他們還能夠在更低的油價(jià)下獲得利潤(rùn)。根據(jù)摩根大通的數(shù)據(jù)，自2014年以來(lái)，美國(guó)的鉆探和壓裂成本已經(jīng)下降了36%，大大降低了許多生產(chǎn)商的盈虧平衡點(diǎn)。例如，摩根大通指出，提高效率意味著頁(yè)巖公司EOG資源今天的盈虧平衡油價(jià)為每桶42美元，與2014年的每桶盈虧平衡價(jià)格的86美元相比，其收益相當(dāng)；相比之下沙特阿拉伯需要約81美元的油價(jià)才能平衡財(cái)務(wù)狀況。

美國(guó)頁(yè)巖革命極大地改變了全球能源市場(chǎng)。從2008年的起飛到在短短十多年時(shí)間里，二疊紀(jì)盆地“盜取了沙特加瓦爾盆地的衣缽”，成為世界上產(chǎn)量最高的油田之一，頁(yè)巖繁榮成為最令人印象深刻的增長(zhǎng)故事之一。

據(jù)路透社估計(jì)，美國(guó)的石油產(chǎn)量至少比沒(méi)有采用水平鉆井和水力壓裂技術(shù)時(shí)高出1000萬(wàn)至1100萬(wàn)桶/日。

不幸的是，由于投資者要求提高回報(bào)率、設(shè)備和勞動(dòng)力的限制以及缺乏資本等壓力，美國(guó)頁(yè)巖區(qū)最近一直在努力增產(chǎn)邊緣徘徊。

但是，頁(yè)巖巨頭?？松梨诠粳F(xiàn)在押注于通過(guò)采用新的壓裂技術(shù)將頁(yè)巖生產(chǎn)商的原油產(chǎn)量從現(xiàn)有井口產(chǎn)量上翻倍。

?？松紫瘓?zhí)行官達(dá)倫·伍茲在伯恩斯坦戰(zhàn)略決策會(huì)議上表示：“地下儲(chǔ)量還有很多油。壓裂技術(shù)已經(jīng)存在很長(zhǎng)時(shí)間，但壓裂技術(shù)的科學(xué)原理并不為人們所熟悉。”伍茲透露，?？松壳罢谂Ω纳茐毫鸭夹g(shù)的兩個(gè)方面。首先，公司正在努力使壓裂更加精確，以便更多含油巖石被榨干。其次，他們正在尋找方法使壓裂裂縫保持更長(zhǎng)時(shí)間開(kāi)裂狀態(tài)，以增加原油的流動(dòng)。

頁(yè)巖再壓裂技術(shù)

幸運(yùn)的是，美國(guó)頁(yè)巖區(qū)不必等待?？松晟破湫碌膲毫鸭夹g(shù)。已經(jīng)存在一種經(jīng)過(guò)驗(yàn)證的技術(shù)頁(yè)巖井再壓裂技術(shù)，亦即供油生產(chǎn)商返回到現(xiàn)有井口進(jìn)行第二次高壓噴射，與完鉆新井相比以極低的成本提高產(chǎn)量。

再壓裂是一種在井口經(jīng)歷了初始生產(chǎn)期后重新刺激井口的操作，可以將井口的產(chǎn)能恢復(fù)到接近甚至高于初始產(chǎn)量的水平，并延長(zhǎng)井口的生產(chǎn)壽命。再壓裂對(duì)生產(chǎn)商來(lái)說(shuō)就像一劑強(qiáng)心針，可以用比開(kāi)發(fā)新井低得多的成本迅速增加產(chǎn)量。

雖然再壓裂從未真正成為主流技術(shù)，但隨著鉆井技術(shù)的改進(jìn)、老化的油田產(chǎn)量下降以及企業(yè)試圖以更少的資源獲得更多產(chǎn)量，這種技術(shù)的采用率越來(lái)越高。根據(jù)《石油技術(shù)雜志》（Journal of Petroleum Technology）發(fā)表的一份報(bào)告，來(lái)自得克薩斯州南部的鷹福德頁(yè)巖新研究顯示，使用套管進(jìn)行再壓裂的井口產(chǎn)出甚至能夠勝過(guò)新井，盡管后者受益于更現(xiàn)代的完井設(shè)計(jì)。

《石油技術(shù)雜志》還估計(jì)，北達(dá)科他州的巴肯頁(yè)巖有大約400口開(kāi)放井，如果進(jìn)行再次壓裂，有望創(chuàng)造超過(guò)20億美元的產(chǎn)值。需要注意的是，這一估計(jì)是基于每桶60美元的油價(jià)，而今年的平均油價(jià)接近每桶90美元。根據(jù)ResFrac公司的首席運(yùn)營(yíng)官加勒特·福勒所言，再壓裂的成本可以比開(kāi)發(fā)新井便宜多達(dá)40%，并且可以將老化井的產(chǎn)量增加一倍或兩倍。

再壓裂的工作原理

福勒表示，最常見(jiàn)的再壓裂方法是在原始井眼內(nèi)安裝鋼套管，然后通過(guò)鋼套管上的孔洞進(jìn)入儲(chǔ)層。該過(guò)程通常使用的鋼材和壓裂砂比新井少一半。

在當(dāng)前通貨膨脹環(huán)境下，再壓裂是很有意義的。今年4月，得克薩斯州的頁(yè)巖生產(chǎn)商卡隆石油透露，壓裂砂、鉆桿和勞動(dòng)力成本使得鉆井和完井服務(wù)成本同比增長(zhǎng)約20%。北達(dá)科他州巴肯頁(yè)巖的卡隆石油和赫斯石油不得不增加資本支出預(yù)算以應(yīng)對(duì)成本增加，其中卡隆增加了7500萬(wàn)美元的原始預(yù)算，而赫斯增加了2億美元的支出。

水力壓裂公司哈里伯頓的區(qū)域副總裁斯蒂芬·英格拉姆表示：“諸如再壓裂這樣的技術(shù)將使該行業(yè)能夠繼續(xù)開(kāi)采這些儲(chǔ)層中的油氣資源?！?/p>

再壓裂的另一個(gè)關(guān)鍵優(yōu)勢(shì)是不需要額外的州級(jí)許可證或與土地所有者進(jìn)行重新協(xié)商。它們對(duì)環(huán)境的干擾也較小，因?yàn)榫芬呀?jīng)有道路通達(dá)。

能源咨詢公司Primary Vision Network的首席執(zhí)行官馬特·約翰遜告訴路透社：“考慮到通貨膨脹、供應(yīng)鏈問(wèn)題和工資上漲，現(xiàn)在是運(yùn)營(yíng)商開(kāi)始考慮進(jìn)行再壓裂的時(shí)機(jī)?！?/p>

再壓裂還展現(xiàn)出更高的采收率：在一份由休斯敦的綜合能源服務(wù)公司Integrated Energy Services的首席執(zhí)行官羅伯特·巴巴等人共同撰寫(xiě)的研究報(bào)告中，他們分享了來(lái)自得克薩斯州南部的鷹福德頁(yè)巖的一個(gè)案例研究，涉及五口再壓裂井。經(jīng)過(guò)再壓裂后，井口的平均預(yù)計(jì)最終產(chǎn)量（EUR）為13.2%，而采用現(xiàn)代完井設(shè)計(jì)的七口新井的初始EUR平均為7.4%。

報(bào)告作者表示，盡管現(xiàn)代完井被認(rèn)為具有優(yōu)勢(shì)，但再壓裂可以將刺激儲(chǔ)層的體積“擴(kuò)大到新完井無(wú)法達(dá)到的程度”。這是因?yàn)殡S著儲(chǔ)層的耗竭和孔隙壓力的下降，再壓裂的裂縫往往會(huì)向新的方向擴(kuò)展，并觸及先前無(wú)法進(jìn)入的巖石部分。

胡耀東 譯自 油價(jià)網(wǎng) 

原文如下：

U.S. Shale Challenges OPEC With Record Production In 2023

The EIA has forecast total U.S. output will hit 12.61M bbl/day in the current year, eclipsing the previous record of 12.32M bbl/day.

Energy experts have generally been bearish about U.S. crude supply with many arguing it has already peaked.

Rising costs as well as limited supplies of labor and equipment were some of the problems that were hamstringing efforts by U.S. shale to increase output.

Last year, oil prices hit multi-decade highs shortly after the war, prompting the Administration to urge U.S. producers and OPEC to ramp up production at a faster clip so as to rein in spiraling oil prices. However, Saudi Arabia and its allies responded by doing the exact opposite, cutting production when oil prices started plummeting. 

Well,the government can at least thank his lucky stars that the U.S. Shale Patch paid heed to his clarion call: the Energy Information Administration (EIA) has forecast total U.S. output will hit 12.61M bbl/day in the current year, eclipsing the previous record of 12.32M bbl/day set in 2019's and easily beating last year's 11.89M bbl/day. U.S. crude oil output is up 9% Y/Y blunting OPEC’s efforts to keep supplies low in a bid to goose prices.

Energy experts have generally been bearish about U.S. crude supply with many arguing it has already peaked, “The projection suggests the pace of US shale growth, one of the few sources of major new supply in recent year, is slowing despite oil prices hovering at around $90 a barrel, about double most domestic producers’ breakeven costs. If the trend continues, it would deprive the global market of additional barrels to help make up for OPEC+ production cuts and disruption to supplies ,” Bloomberg said,

Bloomberg cited comments by ConocoPhillips (NYSE: COP) CEO Ryan Lance that rising costs as well as limited supplies of labor and equipment were some of the problems that were hamstringing efforts by U.S. shale producers to quickly ramp up production. However, Bloomberg also noted that the biggest factor behind the slowdown is a change of the playbook by the majority of U.S. shale companies from focussing on growth and expansion to more capital discipline and returning more cash to shareholders.

Improved Efficiency

Luckily for the Shale Patch, improving drilling and cost efficiency not only means they are able to squeeze more for less but they are also able to eke out a profit at much lower oil prices. According to J.P. Morgan, U.S. drilling and fracking costs have declined 36% since 2014, significantly lowering the breakeven points of many producers. For instance JPM points out that increased efficiency means EOG Resources (NYSE:EOG), for example, can earn as much from oil priced at $42/bbl today as it would have from $86/bbl oil in 2014; in contrast, Saudi Arabia reportedly requires ~$81/bbl oil to balance its books.

The U.S. shale revolution dramatically reshaped the world energy markets. The shale boom was one of the most impressive growth stories, from take off in 2008 to the Permian stealing the mantle from Saudi Arabia’s Ghawar as the world’s highest producing oilfield in a little over a decade.

Overall, Reuters has estimated that, “U.S. petroleum production is at least 10-11 million bpd higher than it would have been without horizontal drilling and hydraulic fracturing.’

Unfortunately, the Shale Patch has lately been struggling to ramp up production due to a litany of challenges including pressure from investors to boost returns, limited equipment and workers as well as a lack of capital.

But shale giant ExxonMobil Corp. (NYSE:XOM) is now betting that shale producers can double crude output from their existing wells by employing novel fracking technologies.

“There’s just a lot of oil being left in the ground. Fracking’s been around for a really long time, but the science of fracking is not well understood,” Exxon Chief Executive Officer Darren Woods said Thursday at the Bernstein Strategic Decisions conference. Woods has revealed that Exxon is currently working on two specific areas to improve fracking. First off, the company is trying to frack more precisely along the well so that more oil-soaked rock gets drained. It’s also looking for ways to keep the fracked cracks open longer so as to boost the flow of oil.

Shale Refracs

Luckily, the U.S. Shale Patch won’t have to wait for Exxon to perfect its new fracking technologies. There's already a proven technology for oil producers to return to existing wells and give them a second, high-pressure blast to increase output for a fraction of the cost of finishing a new well: shale well refracturing.

Refracturing is an operation designed to restimulate a well after an initial period of production, and can restore well productivity to near original or even higher rates of production as well as extend the productive life of a well. Re-fracking can be something of a booster shot for producers——quick increase in output for a fraction of the cost of developing a new well.

While refracturing has never really gone mainstream, the technique is seeing higher adoption as drilling technology improves, aging oilfields erode output, and companies try to do more with less. According to a report published in the Journal of Petroleum Technology, new research from the Eagle Ford Shale in south Texas shows that refractured wells using liners are even capable of outperforming new wells despite the latter benefiting from more modern completion designs.

JPT also estimates that North Dakota’s Bakken Shale straddles some 400 openhole wells capable of generating an excess of $2 billion if refractured. Mind you, that estimate is derived from oil prices at $60/bbl vs. this year’s average oil price of almost $90/bbl. According to Garrett Fowler, chief operating officer for ResFrac, a refrac can be up to 40% cheaper than a new well and double or triple oil flows from aging wells.

How Refracs Work

Fowler says the most common re-frac method involves placing a steel liner inside the original well bore and then blasting holes through the steel casing to access the reservoir. The process typically uses half as much steel and frac sand than a new well

Refrac makes a lot of sense in the current inflationary environment. Back in April, Texas shale producer Callon Petroleum Company (NYSE: CPE) revealed that frac sand, drill pipe and labor costs have increased drilling and well-completion service costs ~20% Y/Y. Callon and Hess Corp. (NYSE: HES), both of which drill in North Dakota's Bakken shale, have been forced to hike capital spending budgets over the costs with Callon adding $75 million to its original budget while Hess added $200 million to its spending,

"Techniques like re-fracturing will allow the industry to continue to harvest the oil and gas out of these reservoirs," said Stephen Ingram, a regional vice president at hydraulic fracturing firm Halliburton Company (NYSE: HAL).

Another key benefit: re-fracs do not require additional state permits or new negotiations with landowners. They are also less disruptive to the environment because well sites already have road access.

"Considering inflation, supply chain issues, and rising wages, now is a great time for operators to start looking at wells for re-frac opportunities," Matt Johnson, CEO of energy consultancy Primary Vision Network, has told Reuters.

Refracs have also demonstrated higher recovery rates: in URTeC 3724057, Roberta Barba, a longtime completions consultant and CEO of Houston-based Integrated Energy Services, et al. share a case study from the Eagle Ford Shale in south Texas involving five refractured wells. The refractured wells had a combined average post-refrac EUR of 13.2% compared to an initial EUR of 7.4% average by seven new infill wells with modern completion designs.

Robert Barba, a longtime completions consultant and CEO of Houston-based Integrated Energy Services (IES).Estimated ultimate recovery (EUR) refers to potential production expected from an oil well or deposit and is made up of three components: proven reserves; probable reserves; and possible reserves.

The Authors of the paper say that despite the presumed advantages of a modern completion, refracs can increase stimulated reservoir volume “beyond what is achievable in a new completion”. This is attributed to the fact that as the reservoir depletes and pore pressure drops, fractures from a refrac tend to grow into a new direction and tap previously inaccessible portions of rock.