經(jīng)濟逆風迫使國際能源署將其全球石油需求增長預(yù)測從上個月的預(yù)測每天下調(diào)了22萬桶

國際能源署強調(diào)，不斷加深的制造業(yè)滑坡是修訂后的預(yù)測中的一個關(guān)鍵因素

盡管亞洲需求繼續(xù)出乎意料地上升，但由于工業(yè)活動放緩，歐洲的需求市場正在苦苦掙扎

中國石化新聞網(wǎng)訊 據(jù)油價網(wǎng)2023年7月13日報道，持續(xù)的經(jīng)濟逆風促使國際能源署今年首次下調(diào)了全球石油需求增長預(yù)測。

國際能源署周四發(fā)布的備受關(guān)注的《石油市場報告》顯示，國際能源署繼續(xù)強調(diào)，今年全球石油日需求將達到歷史最高水平的1.021億桶。

然而，今年全球石油日需求增長速度比6月份的預(yù)測下調(diào)了22萬桶，這是國際能源署首次下調(diào)今年的全球石油需求增長預(yù)測。

國際能源署表示：“持續(xù)的宏觀經(jīng)濟逆風，在制造業(yè)不斷加深的低迷中表現(xiàn)得很明顯，導(dǎo)致我們今年首次下調(diào)了全球石油需求增長預(yù)期?！?/p>

國際能源署指出，亞洲需求增長繼續(xù)出乎意料，但在工業(yè)活動放緩的背景下，發(fā)達經(jīng)濟體(尤其是歐洲)的石油需求一直在萎縮。

國際能源署表示：“充滿挑戰(zhàn)的經(jīng)濟環(huán)境正給全球石油需求帶來壓力，尤其是過去12個月，許多發(fā)達國家和發(fā)展中國家大幅收緊了貨幣政策?！?/p>

今年到目前為止，全球石油供應(yīng)已經(jīng)足以滿足需求。例如，6月份的供應(yīng)量僅比去年10月歐佩克+最新一輪減產(chǎn)開始前的水平低7萬桶/日。

但國際能源署補充稱，隨著沙特本月和下個月額外減產(chǎn)100萬桶/日，全球石油供應(yīng)可能大幅下降，并令市場吃緊。

國際能源署總結(jié)稱：“從7月開始更大幅度的供應(yīng)削減，表明石油市場可能很快就會出現(xiàn)新的波動?！?/p>

李峻 譯自 油價網(wǎng)

原文如下：

IEA Cuts Oil Demand Growth Forecast For First Time This Year

·     Economic headwinds have forced the IEA to cut its global oil demand growth forecast by 220,000 bpd from last month’s forecast.

·     The agency highlighted a deepening manufacturing slope as being a key factor in the revised forecast.

·     While Asian demand continues to surprise to the upside, demand in Europe is struggling amid a slowdown in industrial activity.

Persistent economic headwinds have prompted the International Energy Agency (IEA) to cut its global oil demand growth forecast for the first time this year.

The agency continues to see a record-high global oil demand in 2023, at 102.1 million barrels per day (bpd), its closely-watched Oil Market Report showed on Thursday.

However, the pace of growth in demand was lowered by 220,000 bpd from last month’s projection, the first downward revision to oil demand growth for this year from the IEA.

“Persistent macroeconomic headwinds, apparent in a deepening manufacturing slump, have led us to revise our 2023 growth estimate lower for the first time this year,” the agency said.

Asian demand growth continues to surprise to the upside, the IEA noted, but demand in developed economies, especially in Europe, has been languishing amid a slowdown in industrial activity.

“World oil demand is coming under pressure from the challenging economic environment, not least because of the dramatic tightening of monetary policy in many advanced and developing countries over the past twelve months,” the IEA said.

So far this year, global oil supply has been enough to meet demand. In June, for example, supply was just 70,000 bpd below the levels from last October before the first round of the latest OPEC+ cuts kicked in. 

But with Saudi Arabia’s additional 1 million bpd cut this month and next, supply could tumble and tighten the market, the agency added.

The “ongoing draws in oil on water and deeper supply cuts starting this month suggest the oil market may soon see renewed volatility,” the IEA concluded.