中國(guó)石化新聞網(wǎng)訊 據(jù)海灣新聞網(wǎng)2023年7月4日迪拜/倫敦報(bào)道，歐佩克+是一個(gè)由石油輸出國(guó)組織（歐佩克）和包括產(chǎn)能大國(guó)在內(nèi)的非歐佩克產(chǎn)油國(guó)組成的集團(tuán)，其原油產(chǎn)量占世界原油總產(chǎn)量的40%左右，自去年11月以來，面對(duì)油價(jià)低迷，歐佩克+一直在削減原油產(chǎn)量。
歐佩克成員國(guó)沙特阿拉伯和產(chǎn)能大國(guó)周一進(jìn)一步削減原油供應(yīng)以推高油價(jià)。這兩個(gè)國(guó)家是世界上最大的原油出口國(guó)。然而，此舉只是短暫提振了市場(chǎng)。
這兩次減產(chǎn)都是在4月份最初引入的更廣泛的歐佩克+減產(chǎn)協(xié)議的基礎(chǔ)上進(jìn)行的，該協(xié)議將限制供應(yīng)持續(xù)到2024年，并將宣布的原油日總產(chǎn)量減少500萬(wàn)桶以上，約占全球原油總產(chǎn)量的5%。4月份的意外宣布減產(chǎn)加深了去年11月份推出的減產(chǎn)措施，并在隨后的日子里推動(dòng)油價(jià)每桶上漲約9美元，至每桶87美元以上。
但此后基準(zhǔn)原油價(jià)格回吐了這些漲幅，7月4日布倫特原油期貨交易價(jià)格略低于每桶76美元。
歐亞集團(tuán)(Eurasia Group)分析師認(rèn)為，進(jìn)一步減產(chǎn)“將無助于改變市場(chǎng)的看跌情緒，目前市場(chǎng)對(duì)今年下半年原油需求增長(zhǎng)前景感到悲觀”。
以下是歐佩克+減產(chǎn)未能顯著提振油價(jià)的4個(gè)主要原因：
1. 對(duì)需求疲軟的擔(dān)憂
來自亞洲的數(shù)據(jù)引發(fā)了人們的擔(dān)憂，即世界第二大原油消費(fèi)國(guó)從疫情封鎖中復(fù)蘇的速度正在減緩。
德國(guó)商業(yè)銀行分析師卡斯滕·弗里奇說：“盡管該國(guó)原油需求的數(shù)據(jù)證明是強(qiáng)勁的，但在取消社交限制后，該國(guó)的經(jīng)濟(jì)復(fù)蘇明顯比預(yù)期的要緩慢。”
弗里奇表示，該國(guó)原油需求的飆升在很大程度上是去年需求下降后的一種追趕效應(yīng)，而這種增長(zhǎng)勢(shì)頭可能會(huì)大幅放緩。
2. 更高的利率
更令人擔(dān)憂的是，包括美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)（FED）在內(nèi)的主要央行警告稱，為了對(duì)抗頑固的高通脹，可能會(huì)進(jìn)一步加息。
更高的利率會(huì)侵蝕消費(fèi)者的可支配收入，并可能導(dǎo)致駕車和旅行支出減少，從而限制原油需求。
更高的利率還推高了制造商的成本，數(shù)據(jù)顯示制造行業(yè)復(fù)蘇正在放緩。
石油經(jīng)紀(jì)商PVM分析師Tamas Varga表示：“沒有任何拐彎抹角，全球各地的工廠都在苦苦掙扎，日本、歐元區(qū)、英國(guó)和美國(guó)的制造業(yè)萎縮，而制造業(yè)也在6月放緩?！?/p>
這一切都意味著，投資者并不認(rèn)同今年下半年全球原油需求將強(qiáng)勁反彈的觀點(diǎn)。
有預(yù)測(cè)稱，大量原油將需要使用之前的庫(kù)存以滿足供應(yīng)需求，這一預(yù)測(cè)尤其令人懷疑。
“國(guó)際能源署(IEA)和石油輸出國(guó)組織(歐佩克)均繼續(xù)預(yù)測(cè)全球原油日產(chǎn)量將增加200萬(wàn)桶，但隨著時(shí)間的推移，這些預(yù)測(cè)的可信度正在下降，市場(chǎng)需要一些時(shí)間才能出現(xiàn)有意義的調(diào)整。”歐亞集團(tuán)表示。
3. 美國(guó)產(chǎn)量增加
美國(guó)產(chǎn)量增速快于預(yù)期，也助長(zhǎng)了市場(chǎng)對(duì)油價(jià)上漲的悲觀情緒。
EIA預(yù)計(jì)，今年美國(guó)原油日產(chǎn)量將增加72萬(wàn)桶達(dá)到1261萬(wàn)桶，高于此前該機(jī)構(gòu)預(yù)測(cè)的日增64萬(wàn)桶。
相比之下，2018年美國(guó)的原油日產(chǎn)量約為1000萬(wàn)桶。
4. 看漲程度低
2020年，沙特能源大臣薩勒曼警告交易商不要在石油市場(chǎng)上大舉押注，稱那些押注油價(jià)的人將“像在地獄一樣痛苦”。
在6月4日歐佩克+會(huì)議之前，薩勒曼再次發(fā)出警告，告訴投機(jī)者“小心”，許多市場(chǎng)觀察人士和投資者將其解讀為歐佩克+可能考慮進(jìn)一步減產(chǎn)，以懲罰那些押注油價(jià)下跌的人。
然而，投資者仍在削減多頭頭寸。
根據(jù)盛寶銀行(Saxo Bank)分析師Ole Hansen所言，最新數(shù)據(jù)顯示，WTI和布倫特原油期貨的多頭頭寸減少了6.6萬(wàn)份，目前為23.1萬(wàn)份合同。
李峻 譯自 海灣新聞網(wǎng)
原文如下：
Why OPEC+ oil supply cuts are failing to boost oil prices
Dubai/London: OPEC+, a group comprising the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies including the bigger producer that pumps around 40 per cent of the world’s crude, has been cutting oil output since November in the face of flagging prices.
Members Saudi Arabia and the bigger producer, the world’s biggest oil exporters, deepened oil supply cuts on Monday in an effort to send prices higher. Yet the move only briefly lifted the market.
Both cuts came in addition to a broader OPEC+ deal to limit supply into 2024 initially introduced in April, and take total output reductions announced to over five million barrels per day (bpd), or about 5 per cent of global oil output.
The surprise April announcement deepened production cuts introduced in November, and helped to raise prices by about $9 a barrel to above $87 per barrel in the days that followed.
But benchmark crude prices have shed those gains since, with Brent futures on Tuesday trading at just under $76 per barrel.
The additional cuts, Eurasia Group analysts argue, “will do little to shift bearish sentiment in a market that is consumed with pessimism about the prospects for oil demand growth in the second half of the year”.
Here are the main reasons why OPEC+ output cuts are failing to significantly lift oil prices:
1. Concerns about weak demand
Data from Aisa has sparked fears that the economic recovery from coronavirus lockdowns in the world’s second-largest oil consumer is losing steam.
“The economic recovery in Asia following the lifting of coronavirus restrictions has been noticeably more sluggish than anticipated, even though the data for oil demand proved robust,” Commerzbank analyst Carsten Fritsch said.
He said the jump in this area oil demand was largely a catch-up effect after it fell last year, and that this growth momentum was likely to slow considerably.
2. Higher interest rates
Adding to worries, leading central banks, including the US Federal Reserve, are warning more interest rates hikes could be on the horizon to fight stubbornly high inflation.
Higher interest rates eat into consumers’ disposable income and could translate into less spending on driving and travelling, limiting oil demand.
They also drive up costs for manufacturers, and data suggests a slowdown in the sector is happening.
“There is no beating around the bush, factories are struggling across the globe as the sector shrank in Japan, the euro zone, the UK and the US whilst slowed last month,” PVM analyst Tamas Varga said.
This all means investors are not buying into the idea that the second half of 2023 will see a strong rebound in oil demand.
There are doubts in particular over forecasts that significant quantities of oil will need to be taken out of storage for supply to meet demand.
“With both the International Energy Agency and OPEC continuing to forecast draws of about 2 million bpd ... the credibility of these forecasts is diminishing over time, and markets will take some convincing for a meaningful correction to occur,” Eurasia says.
3. US output rising
Faster than expected growth in US output has also been contributing to market pessimism about oil price gains.
The Energy Information Administration projects US crude oil production will climb by 720,000 bpd to 12.61 million bpd this year, above a prior forecast increase of 640,000 bpd.
This compares with around 10 million bpd as recently as 2018.
4. Less bullish
In 2020, Saudi Energy Minister Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman warned traders against betting heavily in the oil market, saying those who gamble on the oil price would be “ouching like hell”.
He repeated his warning ahead of the June 4 OPEC+ meeting, telling speculators to “watch out”, which many market watchers and investors interpreted as a signal OPEC+ could consider further output cuts to punish those betting on lower prices.
Yet investors continue to pare back long positions.
The latest data show the combined long position in WTI and Brent futures fell by 66,000 contracts to 231,000 ,” according to Saxo Bank analyst Ole Hansen.
