中國(guó)石化新聞網(wǎng)訊 據(jù)油價(jià)網(wǎng)6月30日?qǐng)?bào)道， 一位對(duì)沖基金經(jīng)理告訴彭博社，由于油價(jià)在75美元以下徘徊，OPEC（石油輸出國(guó)組織，歐佩克）可能發(fā)現(xiàn)自己被迫維持額外的減產(chǎn)，尤其是沙特。
這位來自投資公司Black Gold Investors LLC的對(duì)沖基金經(jīng)理表示：“考慮到市場(chǎng)情緒的脆弱性，目前撤銷減產(chǎn)可能會(huì)對(duì)油價(jià)造成過大的損害。”
本月早些時(shí)候，沙特自愿同意將7月的日產(chǎn)量目標(biāo)再次削減100萬桶，而且可能會(huì)延長(zhǎng)。油價(jià)上漲了一些，但影響并不持久。如今，原油價(jià)格低于宣布減產(chǎn)前的水平，這讓OPEC陷入了一個(gè)棘手的境地。
在OPEC會(huì)議前，沙特阿拉伯能源大臣薩勒曼再次警告交易商不要對(duì)油價(jià)進(jìn)行投機(jī)性押注。他在2020年也曾發(fā)出類似的威脅。他當(dāng)時(shí)說：“我會(huì)讓那些在這個(gè)市場(chǎng)上投機(jī)的人遭受嚴(yán)重?fù)p失。”
事實(shí)上因?yàn)橛蛢r(jià)反彈，OPEC在今年4月宣布的減產(chǎn)舉措曾讓空頭賣家受到了打擊。然而，這次提前發(fā)出的警告很可能削弱了市場(chǎng)對(duì)沙特慷慨減產(chǎn)的反應(yīng)。
目前，布倫特原油價(jià)格略低于每桶75美元，但國(guó)際貨幣基金組織最近的估計(jì)表明，沙特阿拉伯的原油財(cái)政平衡點(diǎn)超過80美元每桶。
沙特阿拉伯的額外減產(chǎn)將在7月生效，隨著供應(yīng)收緊，油價(jià)可能會(huì)上漲。畢竟，IEA預(yù)測(cè)今年下半年原油供應(yīng)將超過需求200萬桶/日。
胡耀東 譯自 油價(jià)網(wǎng)
原文如下：
Is OPEC Locked Into Supply Cuts With Oil Below $75
As oil prices hover underneath the $75 for a Brent barrel, OPEC has likely found itself stuck with the extra supply cuts it took on—mainly Saudi Arabia—a hedge fund manager told Bloomberg on Friday.
“It would be too damaging to prices to remove it at this time, given the fragility of sentiment,” hedge fund manager of Black Gold Investors LLC said.
Earlier this month, Saudi Arabia voluntarily agreed to downsize its production targets by another 1 million barrels per day for the month of July—although it could be extended. Oil prices reacted by jumping up, but the effects were not long-lasting. Today, crude oil prices are lower than they were prior to the announced cut, putting OPEC in a tricky position.
In the runup to the OPEC meeting, Saudi Arabia’s Energy Minister Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman warned traders once again against taking a speculative bet against oil. He made similar threats back in 2020. “I’m going to make sure whoever gambles on this market will be ouching like hell,” he said at the time.
Indeed, OPEC’s cuts they announced back in April hurt short sellers when prices rallied. This time, however, the warning ahead of time likely muted the response to Saudi Arabia’s generous production cut.
Brent prices are just a hair under $75 per barrel today, but recent estimations from the International Monetary Fund suggest that Saudi Arabia’s fiscal breakeven for crude oil is more than $80 per barrel.
Saudi Arabia’s extra cuts go into effect in July, and prices could tick up as supply tightens. After all, the IEA has predicted that crude oil supply will exceed demand by 2 million bpd in the second half of this year.
